The Big Questions About South African Income Inequality
This brief contains highlights from a discussion with HSF research fellow, Prof. Alex van den Heever regarding the implementation of basic income support in South Africa.
On The Importance Of Thinking Clearly About The Labour Market
This brief is a companion to the Helen Suzman Foundation’s submission to the Department of Labour on the Report of the National Minimum Wage Commission on the Review and Adjustment of the National Minimum Wage for 2022. The analysis here amplifies the argument the Foundation made in its submission.
The Social Relief of Distress - How Has Poverty Changed Between 2019 and the Second Quarter of 2021?
This brief presents a method for estimating poverty quarter by quarter and for assessing the impact of the Social Relief of Distress grant, including the supplementation of the caregiver/child support grant.
The Social Relief of Distress - How Well Did the Social Relief of Distress Grant Perform in January 2021?
The fourth wave of the National Income Dynamics Study Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey collected data for the month of January 2021, including information on applications for the SRD grant and receipts of it. This brief considers information from it, along with data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the first quarter of 2021, in an attempt to answer these questions.
Household Income and Household Hunger
The preceding two briefs in this series considered the measurement of hunger at the household and personal levels in the 2019 General Household Survey and the five waves of the NIDS-CRAM survey conducted between April 2020 and March 2021. This brief develops the analysis by discussing the relationship between household income per capita, poverty and measures of hunger.
Do We Have an Adequate Measure of Hunger in South Africa? II - The National Income Dynamics Study - Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey
The relief of hunger is often cited as a reason for the introduction of the Social Relief of Distress grant. This brief probes the extent of hunger in South Africa and whether our data available on hunger is coherent and complete, with a focus on National Income Dynamics Study’s Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey.
Do We Have an Adequate Measure of Hunger in South Africa? I - the General Household Survey
The relief of hunger is often cited as a reason for the introduction of the Social Relief of Distress grant. This brief probes the extent of hunger in South Africa and whether our data available on hunger is coherent and complete, with a focus on the 2019 General Household Survey.
The Social Relief of Distress - Legal and Administrative Aspects of the Social Relief of Distress Grant
This brief gives an overview of the legal context relevant to the Social Relief of Distress grant and provides an initial analysis of its adequacy.
The Southern African Development Community III – Education And Labour Market
The Southern African Development Community is made up of sixteen countries and all countries on the continent with territory below five degrees south. The fifteen other countries are linked to South Africa in many ways and constitute our ‘near abroad’. South Africans should know more about them than they often do, and the purpose of this brief series is to set the current state of development in its various aspects: demographic, economic, political and social. This brief focuses on the region’s rates of education and it labour market.
The Southern African Development Community II – Economy: Levels, Growth, Structure, Income Distribution And Happiness
The Southern African Development Community is made up of sixteen countries and all countries on the continent with territory below five degrees south. The fifteen other countries are linked to South Africa in many ways and constitute our ‘near abroad’. South Africans should know more about them than they often do, and the purpose of this brief series is to set the current state of development in its various aspects: demographic, economic, political and social. This brief focusses on the region’s economy – in particular, its growth, structure, income distribution and levels of happiness among its population.
The Southern African Development Community I – Population
The Southern African Development Community is made up of sixteen countries and all countries on the continent with territory below five degrees south. The fifteen other countries are linked to South Africa in many ways and constitute our ‘near abroad’. South Africans should know more about them than they often do, and the purpose of this brief series is to set the current state of development in its various aspects: demographic, economic, political and social. This brief focusses on the region’s population dynamics, namely the evolution of population size and its age structure, as determined by fertility, mortality and migration.
How Will The Health System Cope Over The Next Four Years?
This is the fourth of a four brief series on health expenditure in the public and private sectors. The first brief deals with commonly ignored components of health expenditure: provision in workplaces, and medical expenditure on health financed from the Compensation Fund and the Road Accident Fund. The second considers the impact of local government on health. The third brief sets out information on the pattern of health expenditure from 1 April 2019 to the 31 March 2020. This forms the baseline for examining the implications of the 2021 Budget for health expenditure over the medium term, the topic of this brief.
Health Expenditure In The 2019/20 Financial Year
This is the third of a four brief series on health expenditure in the public and private sectors. The first brief deals with commonly ignored components of health expenditure: provision in workplaces, and medical expenditure on health financed from the Compensation Fund and the Road Accident Fund. The second considers the impact of local government on health. This brief sets out the information on the pattern of health expenditure from 1 April 2019 to the 31 March 2020. This forms the baseline for examining the implications of the 2021 Budget for health expenditure over the medium term, the topic of the fourth brief.
Local Government Impact On Health - What Do We Know?
This is the second of a four brief series on health expenditure in the public and private sectors. The first brief discusses commonly ignored components of health expenditure: provision in workplaces, and medical expenditure financed from the Compensation Fund and the Road Accident Fund. This brief considers the impact of local government on health. The third brief sets out information on the pattern of health expenditure from 1 April 2019 to the 31 March 2020. This forms the baseline for examining the implications of the 2021 Budget for health expenditure over the medium term, the topic of the fourth brief.
Occupational Health And Safety And Fund Payments For Treatment Of Injury And Disease - What Do We Know?
This is the first of a four brief series on health expenditure in the public and private sectors. It discusses commonly ignored components of health expenditure: provision in workplaces, and medical expenditure financed from the Compensation Fund and the Road Accident Fund. The second considers the impact of local government on health. The third brief sets out information on the pattern of health expenditure from 1 April 2019 to the 31 March 2020. This forms the baseline for examining the implications of the 2021 Budget for health expenditure over the medium term, the topic of the fourth brief.
Why Is Burger King Proving a Hard Sell?
This brief explores the legal basis for the Competition Commission prohibiting the purchase of Burger King by Emerging Capital Partners, and argues that it was borne out of an incorrect interpretation of the Competition Act.
Output, Employment, The Minimum Wage And Covid-19
This brief advances an explanation of the divergence between the growth of output and the growth of employment, between the first quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2021. In a brief published on 6 April 2021, I argued that the explanation lay in new methods of data collection – here I advance another explanation.
What Can We Expect From The Economy In 2021?
This brief explores what economic drivers lie behind the economic growth projections from various international organisations, South African official sources and South African commercial banks.
Understanding Cronyism
This brief examines cronyism as a subtype of corruption, and argues, using the executive ethics code as an example, that frameworks do not adequately safeguard against cronyism.
Has Statistics South Africa Under-Estimated The Employment Recovery?
Many commentators have argued that the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, relying solely on Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). But the QLFS is not the only source of information on the labour market. This brief considers the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the labour market by reviewing data from Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Employment Statistics and national accounts, as well as the National Income Dynamics Study Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey.
The Expropriation Bill - Why is everyone focusing on expropriation without compensation and not on the major land reform issues?
This brief examines the many problematic aspects on the subject of land reform in South Africa and points out that the proposed amendment to the Constitution and the Expropriation Bill are not the major issues of concern.
The Silence of the Constitutionalists
In this brief, Matthew Kruger reflects on the suspension of democratic power and subordination of transformative goals during the last year of lockdown. After touching on the failures of our major political parties, Parliament and the media to comprehend or resist this reality, he turns his attention to civil society. In the face of this 365-day deferral of the Constitution, why have so many of our NGOs and lawyers kept silent?
Whom The Gods Would Destroy They First Make Mad
How to achieve redistribution with growth in a period of economic decline is difficult and the beginning of wisdom is to avoid actions which make things worse rather than better. The purpose of this brief is to identify some of them.
Service Delivery in South Africa at a Glance
Against the backdrop of recent discussions on service delivery in the Kgetlengrivier Local Municipality this brief will examine current reactions to service delivery failures and possible actions that aggrieved residents may take.
Who Are The Hungry Children? And How Far Can Increases In Social Grants Help Them? Evidence From The 2019 General Household Survey.
Hunger, and particularly child hunger, have been discussed recently as a justification for extending the social grant system. This brief probes the relationship between child hunger and social grants using data from the 2019 General Household Survey (GHS).
Alternative Proposals For Electing Constituency Representatives In A Mixed System
This brief considers three proposals on the table for a mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral system for consideration by the National Assembly’s Home Affairs Portfolio Committee, and makes the point that advocacy of an MMP system does not, in itself, settle all the details which will needed to be considered in the process of electoral reform.
The Public Sector Wage Dispute: Understanding the judgment of the Labour Appeal Court
This brief considers and evaluates the reasoning of the Labour Appeal Court in the public sector wage dispute and considers the implications of its judgment, in light of the approach adopted by Treasury in the 2021 Budget.
The World Inequality Lab's A Wealth Tax For South Africa - A Critique II - The Proposal
The first Brief considered the estimation of the distribution of wealth in South Africa as set out in a companion paper to the wealth tax proposal from the World Inequality Lab. This Brief considers the proposal itself.
The World Inequality Lab's A Wealth Tax For South Africa - A Critique I - The Distribution Of Wealth
This Brief updates the HSF's 2018 series on wealth taxes by considering the World Inequality Lab’s A wealth tax for South Africa published in 2021.
Issuing additional short-term government bonds to increase funding for COVID-19 Relief
In a follow up to a brief published in May 2020 on the same topic, this brief explores the possibility of allocating to buyers the full amount of short-term, lower-yielding government bonds for which they bid, and how the availability of this funding option differs with changing circumstances.
Third Quarter Production And Employment Statistics - Some Puzzles
This is the final Brief in the series with all the statistical information about production and employment in the third quarter having now been published. This Brief focuses on puzzles which arise when all the sources are considered together.
The Era of Pandemics: Tomorrow's Forever Wars
We are now more than 250 days into our 21-day lockdown, with Ramaphosa and his Command Council claiming for themselves the power to legislate every aspect of our lives until the invisible enemy is beaten, or maybe even longer, as their rhetoric about the new normal suggests. In asserting this power in their war on the virus, they resemble another executive in a different, still-ongoing war against an equally invisible enemy: the US war on terror.
Human Settlements In The Metros
This Brief discusses the Department of Human Settlements’ proposed re-orientation of its policies.
The July To September Quarterly Labour Force Survey
Production in the South African economy has bounced back quite sharply since July. This Brief explores what the Quarterly Labour Force Survey tells us about employment and unemployment in the third quarter.
September Production, Rates Of Profit And Loanable Funds
This Brief updates our understanding of the economy and how it has bounced back. It also considers trends in profitability since the beginning 2014, and finally discusses financial flows within the economy.
Foreign Nationals In Gauteng’s Informal Retail Sector
This brief looks at some important facts behind the informal retail sector, specifically with regards to competition between local and foreign traders, and asks whether the Gauteng government’s current hostile stance towards foreign nationals in the Gauteng Township Economic Development Bill will help or hinder South Africans.
The African Continental Free Trade Area has been established. What now?
This brief examines the recent establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area and its importance within the context of intra-African trade.
The Political Economy Of The Economic Reconstruction And Recovery Plan
The government’s economic policy cards are on the table. Government policy attempts to achieve two goals simultaneously: to ward off an impending fiscal crisis and to improve investment to the point where it can underpin a respectable rate of economic growth. Both need urgent attention. The political economy question is this: can a coalition of interests be maintained to sustain the policy for several years?
Financing Government Debt
The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, tabled in Parliament on 28 October 2020, projects that the government will need to issue above 50% more short-term and long-term domestic debt in 2020/21 than in 2019/20. In this Brief Charles Simkins considers if the targets can be met and what the macroeconomic implications of doing so would be.
How Coherent Are The 2020 Production And Labour Market Data? II - The Main Issues
This brief compares production and labour market estimates from different sources. Some of the work has already been done in previous briefs and this will be referred to, with a brief summary of findings. In order not to clutter the exposition of new comparisons, supporting tables are placed in the annexure to the brief.
How Coherent Are The 2020 Production And Labour Market Data? I - The Basis For Assessment
The preceding briefs in this series have drawn on a number of sources to assess the evolution of the economy during 2020. These data sources have been compiled for different purposes and to a great extent independently of one another. Yet they overlap and their findings can be compared. The questions arise: How coherent are the data from these sources? What judgements can be made after all the sources have been considered? What uncertainties and puzzles remain?
Social Grants and Unemployment Insurance During The Lockdown
After reviewing the special government cash transfers to households in order to help them through the lockdown, this brief summarizes available information on disbursement of these grants.
August Production Estimates And April To June Quarterly Employment Statistics
Given the uncertainties about the evolution of the coronavirus epidemic and the response of the economy to it and to the measures taken to combat it, it is important to us to keep track of economic data as it emerges.
The National Income Dynamics Study’s Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey - The Labour Market In The First And Second Quarters Of 2020
Hard on the heels of the release of the second quarter 2020 (“Q2”) Quarterly Labour Force Survey (“QLFS”) has come the release of the second wave data from the National Income Dynamics Study’s (“NIDS”) Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (“CRAM”).
Electoral Reform: Do independent candidates strengthen the institution of parliament?
The Helen Suzman Foundation is producing a series of briefs on electoral reform in South Africa. This brief, the seventh in our series, considers the role of independent candidates in parliament.
Electoral Reform: Representation in the South African context
The Helen Suzman Foundation is producing a series of briefs on electoral reform in South Africa. This brief, the sixth in our series, will explore the concept of representation within the South African context.
Electoral Reform: Representation - a conceptual analysis
The Helen Suzman Foundation is producing a series of briefs on electoral reform in South Africa. This brief, the fifth in our series, will provide a conceptual analysis of representation.
Electoral Reform And The Political System: The Helen Suzman’s Points Of Departure
The first three briefs in this series establish three main points. The first is that the New Nation case requires electoral reform, the second is that electoral reform may not infringe the constitution, and the third is there are political systemic choices to be made by Parliament about the electoral system within constitutional constraints. This brief sets out the Helen Suzman Foundation’s points of departure at the level of the political system.
Electoral Reform: Are The Electoral Task Team’s “Core Values” Still Relevant?
The Helen Suzman Foundation is producing a series of briefs on electoral reform in South Africa. Following the landmark decision of the Constitutional Court to allow independent candidates to contest national and provincial elections, this series will examine the road ahead at the policy, legislative, and institutional level. This brief, the third in our series, will reconsider the core values for an electoral system identified by the Electoral Task Team in 2003.
The April To June Quarterly Labour Force Survey: A Cautionary Note
The April to June Quarterly Labour Force Survey has appeared. While the HSF commends Stats SA for finally producing it (there were two delays in publication). The HSF cautions that this survey is less reliable than its predecessors for reasons which Charles Simkins elucidates.
Electoral Reform: Constitutional Constraints On The Design Of Our Electoral System
The Helen Suzman Foundation is producing a series of briefs on electoral reform in South Africa. Following the landmark decision of the Constitutional Court to allow independent candidates to contest national and provincial elections, this series will examine the road ahead from the policy, legislative and institutional perspectives. This brief, the second in our series, will explore the constitutional constraints on our electoral system.
Electoral Reform: Understanding the New Nation Movement case
The Helen Suzman Foundation will be producing a series of briefs on electoral reform in South Africa. Following the landmark decision of the Constitutional Court to allow independent candidates to contest national and provincial elections,this series will examine the road ahead from the policy, legislative and institutional perspectives. This brief, the first in our series, will explore the reasoning of the Court and consider the implications of the judgment.
July Production Statistics: An Indication Of A V-Shaped Recovery?
Statistics South Africa publishes monthly production statistics for mining, manufacturing, electricity distributed, the five components of trade, catering and accommodation and two components of trade, storage and communication. The July 2020 estimates have now been published. Gross domestic product statistics have been published for the first two quarters of 2020. What do these estimates reveal about economic recovery since the Level 5 lock down?
The Implications Of The Second Quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product Data
Dr Simkins highlights that the StatsSA announcement on 8 September of a 51% fall in GDP is misleading in the light of a sharp, temporary shock to the economy as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Brief discusses information from the GDP data about the distribution of the burden of the shock. Further analysis of the distribution will become possible when the Quarterly Employment Statistics and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey are published in late October.
A Constitutional Challenge To The Supplementary Budget II: What Are The Prospects Of Success Of A Socio-Economic Rights Challenge?
This brief examines the prospects of success of a constitutional challenge to the Supplementary Budget based on the State’s failure to allocate more resources to be used for the fulfilment of socio-economic rights.
A Constitutional Challenge To The Supplementary Budget I: A Direct Challenge Within The Context Of The Separation Of Powers
An article in Daily Maverick has proposed a direct constitutional challenge to the Supplementary Budget. This brief examines whether a court will entertain a direct challenge to the Supplementary Budget.
Austerity And A Permanent Income Shock
This brief distinguishes between a policy of austerity and the fact of a permanent decline in per capita income, arguing that South Africa should adapt to a drop of real per capita income of 7 to 10% since 2014. It considers the trajectory of monetary and fiscal policy in this light.
Has The Supplementary Budget Betrayed The Promise Of A R 500 Billion Stimulus Package?
An Article In Daily Maverick Has Charged That The Supplementary Budget Has Torn The Guts Out Of The Covid-19 Package Announced In April. This Brief Examines The Validity Of That Claim.
The Adjustment Budget And Beyond
Charles Simkins reviews the Supplementary Budget. A brutal affair. The Zuma legacy and misfortune have made it so.
Economic Prospects: Some Observations
This brief offers four observations on the prospects for the South African economy.
The regulations adopted for Level 4 of the national state of disaster and their implications
This brief deals with the nature of the Level 4 regulations and their economic, legal and political implications
When the United States Economy Sneezes... The likelihood of a “V-shape” Recovery in the United States
The United States generates more than 20 percent of the world's total output and the dollar is the global reserve currency. What happens to its economy will have a global impact. This brief considers the possibility of a so-called “V-shaped” recovery in the US economy.
The Presidential Address To The Nation: 21 April 2020
This brief sets out the key features and implications of the President’s address on 21 April 2020.
Financing The Public Sector Borrowing Requirement Should South Africa Attempt Yield Curve Control?
The public-sector borrowing requirement includes the borrowing needs of government as a whole, and those of state-owned companies, but excludes development finance institutions.
The Coronavirus And The Economy
In this brief, Charles Simkins suggests principles to guide thinking about the relationship between the epidemic and the economy.
A Guide To The Duties Imposed On South Africans During The Lockdown
In this brief, Charles Simkins, offers an explainer to the Amended COVID-19 Lockdown Regulations which come into effect on 26 March 2020.
The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement On Not Answering The Question
In this brief, Charles Simkins reflects on the Medium Term Budget Statement and the projections made therein.
Migration I: Public opinion versus reality on immigrants in South Africa
This brief reviews immigrants’ net economic contribution, and crime statistics. The OECD estimates that immigrants contribute between 8.9% and 9.1% of national GDP.
Foreign Nationals In The Informal Retail Sector
This brief looks at some important facts behind foreign nationals in the informal retail sector, and asks whether government’s current hostile stance on the matter, as voiced by the Minister of Small Business Development, will help or hinder South Africans.
The Economy: Adapt or Die III - The Long Term
The first brief in this series considered economic priorities leading up to the 2020 Budget. The second brief discussed priorities for the following two years. This, the final brief, proposes initiatives over the longer term.
The Economy: Adapt or Die II - The Medium Term
The first brief in this series considered economic priorities leading up to the 2020 Budget. This brief discusses priorities for the following two years.
The Economy: Adapt or Die I - The Short Term
In this brief Charles Simkins considers the economic priorities leading up to the 2020 Budget.
Recent ANC Comments on Prescribed Assets for Financial Institutions - Brief II of II
This is the second Brief of two that looks prescribed assets, as touted by the ANC. It looks at the potential consequences and finishes with a conclusion. The first Brief introduced us to the idea of prescribed assets; why the idea has been tabled by the ANC; the history of prescribed assets and the lessons learned; is it required to cause private sector investment into government projects; and is it lawful?
Recent ANC Comments on Prescribed Assets for Financial Institutions - Brief I of II
This is the first Brief of two, introducing the idea of prescribed assets: why it has been raised within the ANC, the history of prescribed assets in South Africa and the lessons learned; is it required for private sector investment into government projects and is it lawful? The second Brief looks at the potential consequences and finishes with a conclusion.
Monetary Policy
In this brief, Charles Simkins examines the Reserve Bank's approach to monetary policy.
Debt - the millstone around Eskom’s neck
This brief analyses the magnitude of the problem posed by Eskom’s massive debt, coupled with the lack of information on what is being done about it.
Two innovations in the 2019 Budget
We confine our comments on the 2019 Budget to its two major innovations: the approach to state owned enterprises and the early retirement scheme for public servants.
Budget Challenges III: Revenue And Expenditure
This is the third of three briefs on the challenges to be faced in the presentation of the 2019 Budget on 20 February. It deals with revenue and expenditure. The first brief discussed the economic environment and the second discussed public debt.
Budget Challenges II: Public Debt
This is the second of three briefs on the challenges to be faced in the presentation of the 2019 Budget on 20 February. The first brief dealt with the economic environment surrounding the Budget. This brief deals with the problem of public debt. The third brief will deal with government revenue and expenditure and their policy implications.
Budget Challenges I: The Economic Environment
This is the first of three briefs on the challenges to be faced in the presentation of the 2019 Budget on 20 February. It deals with the global and local economic environment. The second brief will discuss public debt and the third will deal with government revenue and expenditure and their policy implications.
Should The National Development Plan Be Revised?
National Development Plans are revised periodically, often at five year intervals. Although our 'National Development Plan 2030' (NDP) was launched in 2012, it has not been revised. This brief shows that the illusion that the goals of the NDP are achievable cannot be sustained for a minute. A rethink is due.
China’s Loans to South Africa - Brief V
This is the final brief in a series of five that takes a look at South Africa’s recent loans from China; it looks at why the BRICS Bank was not used, on what basis government is able to refuse disclosing further information on the loans, and finishes with a conclusion for the series.
China’s Loans to South Africa - Brief IV
This is the fourth brief in a series of five that takes a look at South Africa’s recent loans from China; it is a summary of the lessons learned from the experiences of the six countries analysed, which have also taken on Chinese debt.
China’s Loans to South Africa - Brief III
This is the third brief in a series of five that takes a look at South Africa’s recent loans from China; it looks at the experiences other countries have had with Chinese debt, namely Zambia, Kenya and Ethiopia.
China’s Loans to South Africa - Brief II
This is the second brief in a series of five that takes a look at South Africa’s recent loans from China; it looks at the experiences other countries have had with Chinese debt, namely Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Argentina.
China’s Loans to South Africa - Brief I
This is the first brief in a series of five that takes a look at South Africa’s recent loans from China. This brief is an overview of South Africa’s debt situation, how the loans from China fit into this, and why we need to look at the experiences other countries have had with Chinese debt.
The African Continental Free Trade Area III – Is Africa ready?
This brief speaks to the likelihood of achieving the African free trade area against imminent challenges, including Nigerian membership, diverging state interests and obstacles to negotiation and implementation.
The African Continental Free Trade Area II – Projected Impact on South Africa
This brief identifies channels through which the African Continental Free Trade Area is expected to transform the South African economy, with positive projections for economic diversification, development and job creation.
The African Continental Free Trade Area I – An Introduction to AfCFTA
This brief explores the current status of the historic African free trade agreement, an agreement intended to unite fifty-four African states and over a billion people under the banner of economic growth and autonomy.
The Coming Demographic Crisis In Sub-Saharan Africa
In this brief Charles Simkins explores the coming demographic crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Eskom’s latest tariff application - Our Submission to the National Energy Regulator
This brief contains a summary of the Helen Suzman Foundation’s submission to the National Energy Regulator on Eskom’s latest tariff application. It describes the extremely serious financial situation in which Eskom finds itself and the strategic issues that need to be addressed.
The President’s Economic Recovery Plan - Some observations
The President announced an economic recovery plan on 20 September. The purpose of this brief is to comment on some of its silences: the absence of important detail and the implicit assumptions.
Land reform - The developmental state on the job
In this brief, Charles Simkins tracks the land reform process both at the executive and legislative phases and offers insights into the challenges ahead.
Land Expropriation and South Africa’s Financial Institutions
This brief considers the potential effects of land expropriation without compensation on the financial institutions of South Africa.
The National Assembly’s Finance Standing Committee Fakes It
On 14 August 2018, representatives of the World Bank presented their ‘systematic country diagnostic’ report entitled An incomplete transition: Overcoming the legacy of exclusion to the National Assembly’s Finance Standing Committee.
The Davis Tax Committee Wealth Tax Report - An Overview
In anticipation of the Davis Tax Committee Wealth Tax Report, the HSF published a series of briefs last year on a wealth tax and whether it was viable method to raise revenue in South Africa. In March this year the Davis Tax Committee published its report on the matter, which this brief considers in the light of the HSF’s work.
Eskom’s 2018 Financial Results
This brief provides a commentary on the main features of Eskom’s 2018 annual financial statements, released on 23 July 2018.
Can we start the long haul now?
We live in a vertiginous age, in a Dadaesque social and political world. Can the ground be prepared for economic recovery in this politically unstable environment?
Reflections on the Minimum Wage Bill
This brief considers the current status of the National Minimum Wage Bill, its limitations and whether its impact will achieve its intended purpose – to advance economic development and social justice.
The PIC and GEPF - An Update
This brief is a follow up on the PIC and GEPF briefs published in the second half of last year. It takes a look at the challenges still facing these organisations in light of the Executive changes and other occurrences that have happened since.
Wealth Taxes VII: Lessons For South Africa
This is the last brief of a seven part series and it considers lessons in wealth tax for South Africa.
Wealth Taxes VI: Land Tax
This is the sixth brief of a seven part series and it considers land tax a possible form of wealth tax in South Africa.
Wealth Taxes V: International Experience (Case Studies)
This is the fifth brief of a seven part series and is the second of two that deal with the international experience with wealth taxes.
Wealth Taxes IV: International Experience (Description)
This is the fourth brief of a seven part series and is the first of two that deal with the international experience with wealth taxes.
Wealth Taxes III: Problems
This is the third brief of a seven part series and it deals with the problems with wealth taxes. The first brief provided a conceptual framework and the second dealt with the rationales for a wealth tax.
Wealth Taxes II: Rationales
This is the second brief of a six part series and it deals with the rationales for a wealth tax. The first brief provided a conceptual framework, and the third discusses the problems.
Wealth Taxes I: Conceptual Frame
This is the first brief of a seven part series. It provides a conceptual framework on wealth taxes. The second brief deals with rationales for wealth taxes, and the third discusses the problems with them.
Curing South Africa's “Sea Blindness” - Cyril Ramaphosa, SONA and the Indian Ocean Rim Association
South Africa got its new Valentine shortly before the clock ticked to midnight on 14th February 2018, as Jacob Zuma exited and Cyril Ramaphosa became first, acting President, then President-Elect and finally President of the Republic in less than twenty-four hours.
Cape Town Round Table: 6 February 2018 - The Budget, Growth & Debt - Beyond The Political Noise: Structural Change Is Urgently Needed
The Helen Suzman Foundation’s Round Table took place surrounded by banners advertising a State of the Nation Address on 8 February that was not delivered. Instead, an ANC process, drawn out for over a week, has resulted in its National Executive Committee recalling Jacob Zuma from his ‘deployment’ as president of the Republic, ending in his resignation on 14 February.
Cape Town Round Table: 6 February 2018 - The Budget, Growth And Debt
This brief, the first of two, summarizes the addresses to the Cape Town Round Table. The companion brief is an analysis of themes discussed at the Round Table.
Municipal Consumer Debt
This brief considers the latest figures, composition, causes and consequences of South Africa’s municipal consumer debt. It also discusses programmes instituted by government and State Owned Enterprises dealing with current issues around municipal consumer debt.
Structural Adjustment
The ratings agencies have put South Africa on terms. Everything now depends on the outcome of Moody’s rating review for downgrade, which may not conclude until after the Budget is presented in February 2018.
This brief by Anton van Dalsen analyses the dangers which are inherent in lower government revenue (resulting from lower than expected economic growth), combined with a potential need for Government to bail out troubled state owned enterprises.
This brief by Charles Simkins reviews the International Monetary Fund's views on the South African economy in its 2017 report.
This brief by Anton van Dalsen is intended to provide more detail on the recent Public Protector’s report and on some very disturbing aspects that it contains.
This brief by Charles Simkins considers the possibility of a radical fiscal stimulus to the economy and the Public Protector’s proposed amendment to Section 224 of the Constitution, which deals with the primary objective of the Reserve Bank. It argues that neither is appropriate and that their implementation would do serious damage to the economy.
This Brief by Charles Collocott considers the overall structures of the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) and Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF), with a focus on transparency and the framework within which they invest. The need for transparency has been highlighted since the PIC invested over R 1 billion in Independent Media in 2013. The framework for investment is of particular interest since the National Treasury has recently stated that the PIC could possibly become the equity partner in loss-making South African Airways.
This brief is a summary of the most recent decisions taken by the credit ratings agencies on South Africa's credit rating following the cabinet reshuffle in March this year. Standard and Poor's and Fitch downgraded the countries foreign currencies to non-investment grade, while Moody's has put the country's sovereign ratings on review for downgrade. The economic implications of the downgrade are evaluated
The first brief in this series by Charles Simkins considered reactions to the removal of Ministers Gordhan and Jonas, and the consequent ratings downgrade. Not surprisingly, a number of different and incoherent implicit assumptions were found. This brief sets out a framework for a more coherent assessment of the issues at stake.
The first brief in this series by Charles Simkins considered reactions to the dismissal of Minister Gordhan and Deputy Minister Jonas, and the downgrades which followed. The second brief outlined a way of thinking systematically about the choices now facing South Africa. This brief will suggest ways in which thinking about transformation can be made more productive and more consistent with support for South African democracy.
This is the first in a series of three briefs by Charles Simkins. It considers five reactions to the dismissal of Minister Gordhan and Deputy Minister Jonas, and the consequent downgrades. The second brief outlines a framework for understanding the choices now facing South Africa and the third deals with aspects of a route forward for empowerment.
The first two briefs in this series discussed the views of the rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, on the South African economy. This is the final brief in the series.
The first brief in this series discussed the current view of the South African economy held by Moody’s rating agency. The next brief will set out the position of Standard and Poor's.
South Africa is in the middle of controversies relating to the SA Revenue Service, the Hawks, the Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan, the National Treasury, and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). There are also serious tensions within the government and the ruling party. South African government bonds have lost money for investors as bond yields have increased. This could get worse if the Minister of Finance is to be replaced by someone who is less trusted by investors. There are conflicts between the National Treasury and the SOEs (for instance Eskom, Denel and South African Airways) all of which revolve around the resistance of the Treasury to finance their respective bailouts. The biggest specialist investor in fixed interest in South Africa, Futuregrowth, has taken the decision to suspend financing any new loans to some SOEs, setting conditions for resumption. A Danish Bank (Jyske Bank) has withdrawn financial support from Eskom. Moreover, the IMF reduced its projections of growth in South Africa between April and July 2016, now expecting growth of 0.1% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017. These recent developments will have an impact on the rating agencies in their next review. In this series of three briefs, one on each rating agency, an account will be given of how agencies evaluated the South African economy in their most recent reviews. Given the deterioration in outlook, there is serious cause for concern about their next reviews.
This is the last Brief in a five part series of Briefs on the IMF and it discusses some conditions necessary for making progress in a bleak environment.
This is the fourth Brief in a five part series and looks at structural reform
This is the third brief in a five part series and it considers the role of the state: public finance and fiscal policy, monetary policy and state-owned enterprises.
This is the second part of a five part series of briefs which considers constraints and risks associated with South Africa’s position in the global economy.
This Brief considers internal constraints on growth
This Brief suggests methods that may be adopted in an effort get through the hard times ahead.
This brief reviews the fundamental elements of municipal finances.
Informal Trading has always been a part of South Africa's economy, 30% of which occurs in Gauteng. With an unemployment rate of 25.2%, Informal Trade is, for many South Africans, the "alternative to unemployment", and should be viewed as a way to "address unemployment" and "reduce vulnerability"
This brief focuses on how the Budget proposals impact on development. The short term outlook for economic growth is relatively poor, so a better framework for development is needed to offset resource constraints of the current economic outlook. The Budget speech announced steps to improve investment, including investment in human capital and infrastructure, contain corruption, and lower the burden of regulation.
The minimum wage issue has been rumbling for some time. The Parliamentary Labour Committee has started hearings on the topic. Business Day reported on 5 November that the Deputy President will chair a committee on the issue which will include six Cabinet Ministers, among them the ministers of labour, economic development and finance. NEDLAC has been given the task of producing a report on the technical aspects of its introduction by July next year.
For some time now, the creation of a hundred black industrialists has been on the government’s agenda. It was discussed at the National Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment Summit in October 2013. Last month, the Deputy Minister of Trade Industry, Mzwandile Masina, announced that it was to be done in the next three years.
Hardly a week goes by without some fresh depressing news about the current state of the South African economy. The Reserve Bank has twice this year reduced its growth forecast for 2014, from 2.8% at the beginning of the year to 2.1% and most recently to 1.7%. It has also reduced its forecasts for 2015 and 2016. Standard and Poor’s and Fitch have downgraded South Africa’s credit rating and Moody’s has put it on negative watch. The Minister of Finance has warned recently that the period ahead will not be easy.
This Brief examines the South African environment in which entrepreneurship is initiated.
Minister Trevor Manuel's full speech as presented at the Helen Suzman Foundation's roundtable event on the National Development Plan, 4 November 2013.
This brief examines the current state of implementation regarding the NDP.
This brief summarises the NDP’s main features and looks at the current state of play regarding levels of support for it.
The proposed Business Licensing Bill, which has been lambasted by critics as draconian and impossible to implement, will be significantly redrafted to take account of public submissions, Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies promised last week. This brief examines the new developments.
This Brief summarises some of the aspects of the Business Licensing Bill and considers what it could mean for business. It showcases State and Private Sector views on the Bill and concludes with some comments from the HSF
In this brief the concept of increasing social security is looked at as being complimentary rather than opposed to economic growth. The author argues that in order for social security to become more comprehensive in South Africa, it needs to be made more sustainable through increasing economic opportunity so that people may become less dependent on the State for their micro-economic security.
The South African Auditor-General Terence Nombembe released the 2011-2012 Consolidated General Report on National and Provincial Audit Outcomes on 12 March, 2013. Whilst Nombembe’s address may have come across as being positive, his sentiments were contradicted by many negative audit outcomes. This brief examines the 2011-2012 Report and highlights the weakness of auditees, causing stagnation and regression.
Zimbabwe I - Demography & Economy
This, the first of two briefs examining the prospects for Zimbabwe following the presidential succession, will consider the demographic and economic context. The second brief will discuss the political implications.
