Lies prevail over truth in agricultural reports
Summary - In Zimbabwe there are no reliable statistics but plenty of damn lies, and it is very difficult to glean the truth from the welter of competing claims made by the ruling party and the opposition. Few stories have inspired more contradictory coverage than the government’s announcement of a bumper harvest and its decision to refuse food aid this year. Zanu-PF and the state-run media claim that the harvest is proof of the success of the land reform programme; the MDC and many in the international media say the government is trying to starve its opponents into submission. Against this backdrop it is instructive to take the minister of agriculture, Joseph Made, literally at his word and review what he has said about agricultural issues over the past 30 months, as reported in the state-run Herald. Since 2001 the government has struggled to source sufficient fertiliser and seed for the planting of maize and wheat. The failure to get these inputs into the hands of smallholder farmers early in the planting season has been repeatedly cited as the proximate cause of food shortages. The Herald shows that numerous promises were made, followed by non-delivery. 17 July 2002: This time the Government has decided to release the initial package early… 24 Dec 2002: … in many instances farmers were being forced to carry on… without the necessary inputs… The problems… persist in all provinces. 13 May 2003: We are working around the clock on the matter. 2 Sept 2003: Government was working flat-out to ensure agricultural inputs were made available… before the onset of the rainy season. 18 Dec 2003: The chairman of the portfolio committee… said government should formally appeal to the non-governmental sector and donor community to assist by importing the required inputs. Dr Made has also repeatedly stressed the need to provide access to tractors for smallholder farmers, and has pursued equipment deals in Iran and Malaysia. The Herald again shows a record of extravagant promises, ending in an admission by Dr Made that the tractors that had been acquired ‘were a pittance’. On imports of maize and wheat by the Grain Marketing Board, Made announced in March 2002 that 1,5m tons of maize would be imported. The following month he said that ‘more than 2,5m tons’ would be purchased. In May he reverted to the earlier number. The government has systematically refused to allow independent evaluation of grain stockpiles. Regarding winter maize, Made said in April 2002 that 400 000 tons were expected. On 4 July he said that ‘nearly 600 000 tons’ were expected. Two days later the Herald reported that 60 000 tons were expected. The Herald has also announced a number of agricultural initiatives which have yet to be launched despite ministerial deadlines that have come and gone, including the establishment of an Agricultural Marketing Authority (which was ‘around the corner’ in May 2003 and which ‘should be operational in the coming few months’ in October 2003), and a 25-year strategy, which Dr Made said in January 2004 ‘should be out in the next few months’. The record clearly shows that Made is a dismal failure who makes extravagant boasts and promises that never materialise. The most serious problem in Zimbabwe today is that agriculture is in the hands of this egregiously incompetent man.
The truth is a tricky affair in Zimbabwe. There are no reliable statistics but plenty of damn lies. Sorting fact from fiction and distinguishing partisan criticism from independent comment is a struggle. The competing claims of the ruling party and the opposition seem to originate from different planets; Zanu-PF are from Mars and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are from Venus.
To many readers in and outside the country, anything that appears in the Zimbabwean state-controlled media is automatically suspect. Likewise, any article in the foreign media about Zimbabwe is considered by other readers to be steeped in falsehood; part and parcel of an Anglo-American campaign to demonise Zanu-PF.
When I was working for the World Food Programme (WFP) in Zimbabwe I helped organise a media junket to coincide with the visit of the agency’s executive director, Jim Morris. At one point, the journalists found themselves standing alongside president Robert Mugabe in State House waiting for the arrival of Mr Morris’s car. Meanwhile, the president was told which reporters were present. Upon hearing there was someone from the Associated Press, the president smiled and asked “Are you associated with us or against us?”
Few stories have inspired more diametrically opposed coverage than the government’s announcement of a bumper harvest and its decision to forego international food aid this year. The opposition claims the government is trying to starve its supporters into submission; a claim echoed in numerous articles in the international media. The ruling party claims the bumper harvest is proof of the success of the land reform programme; a claim echoed by the state-run media.
Against this backdrop of mistrust it is worth reviewing the historical record to see who said what and when. I propose taking the minister of agriculture, Joseph Made, quite literally at his word. Ditto with the government’s claims, through the state-run media, regarding its food security initiatives.
To this end, I have selected a representative sample of the minister’s statements on a variety of important agricultural issues that are under his direct control or influence. The quotations were all taken from articles published during the last two-and-a-half years by the state-run Herald.
I have included both direct quotations and statements attributed to the minister by the Herald. Where relevant I cite statements from other ruling party officials as well.
Inputs
The government of Zimbabwe has struggled since 2001 to source sufficient fertiliser and seed for the planting of maize and wheat. Minister Made and other officials have repeatedly noted that land reform has increased the demand for these agricultural inputs yet their overall domestic production has dropped.
The government blames this drop on “sabotage” by white commercial farmers who used to grow the seed as well as “hoarding” by seed companies. In turn, the seed companies have chafed under price controls and fertiliser producers have been hampered by forex shortages and transportation problems that have reduced their supply of imported chemical inputs. The minister has repeatedly stressed the importance of getting seeds and fertiliser into the hands of smallholder farmers early in the planting season. The failure to do so in recent seasons has been repeatedly cited by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) as the proximate cause of the food shortages.
17 July, 2002: This time the Government has decided to release the initial package early because of the experience of last season where many people ended up getting inputs packages in the middle of the season.
24 December, 2002: In its latest fortnightly crop and livestock report released over the weekend, Arex (the department of agricultural research and extension, part of the ministry of agriculture) said in many instances farmers were being forced to carry on with their agricultural activities without the necessary inputs such as fertiliser. “The problems associated with seed, fertiliser and draught power shortages persist in all provinces.”
13 May, 2003: We are working around the clock on the matter. Last season we did better than the previous season in making inputs available to the farmers.
8 July, 2003: Dr Made said the government was doing everything possible to ensure that all farmers are provided with the necessary inputs before the beginning of the season.
9 July, 2003: Chief Fortune Charumbira (also the deputy minister of housing and local government) told the president “We are finding it difficult to get inputs and when they come late, it will be difficult to make any meaningful contribution to our farming activities.”
2 September, 2003: Government was working flat-out to ensure agricultural inputs were made available to the farmers before the onset of the rain season.
18 December, 2003: The chairman of the portfolio committee on lands, agriculture, water development, rural resources and resettlement, cde Daniel Ncube (Zhombe, Zanu PF), said government should formally appeal to the non-governmental sector and donor community to assist by importing the required inputs. “The distribution of inputs should be targeted at farmers who have been properly vetted as opposed to the prevailing free-for-all scenario.”
Tractors
Aside from seed and fertiliser the minister has also made much of the need to provide access to tractors for smallholder farmers. He has aggressively tried to acquire tractors for ARDA (the government’s agricultural and rural development authority), which he used to head, in part given the state agency’s export contracts for a variety of produce. To this end, the minister has pursued equipment deals in Iran and Malaysia. Government blames the shortage of tractors and harvesters on bad faith efforts by displaced commercial farmers, who allegedly have refused to sell their equipment to government. Government has also blamed white farmers for actively destroying their equipment in the hopes of wrecking the land reform programme.
21 August, 2003: The Malaysian deal will supply the country with 50 000 two-wheel drive tractors, 2 000 four-wheel drive tractors, 100 bulldozers, 300 combine harvesters, 1 000 planters, 10 000 boom sprayers, water pumps, centre pivots, electricity generators, trucks, livestock vaccines, chemicals and 150 million litres of fuel for the coming agricultural season.
27 January, 2004: The Government expects to receive tractors, seed drills and combine harvesters worth at least US$3,5 million from Malaysia within the next few weeks. The equipment — which includes 25 high-powered tractors, 50 seed drills and 15 combine harvesters — is part of a US$10 million facility extended to the country by the Asian nation.
24 April, 2004: He said although the tractors were a pittance compared to the country’s total mechanical requirements, which stand at about 35 000 tractors, they signalled the beginning of the complete mechanisation of the agricultural sector.
GMB Imports
The exact amount of maize and wheat imported through the parastatal Grain Marketing Board is a closely-held secret. The government has systematically denied the UN and others access to its granaries, which might allow for independent evaluation of GMB food stockpiles.
22 March, 2002: Government will import 1,5 million tons of maize to cover about 18 months under a long-term plan aimed at averting starvation in the country, Made said yesterday.
11 April, 2002: “You may be aware of the Government’s move to import more than 2,5 million tons of maize until the next harvest.”
20 May, 2002: The Government is to import 1,5 million tons of maize to cover about 18 months to avert starvation, Made has said.
Winter Maize
After the low production of the main 2001/2002 maize harvest, government was preoccupied with maximising the winter maize crop. The winter maize harvest was supposed to ameliorate nationwide shortages and reduce the need for food aid.
25 April, 2002: Made said the government would irrigate 100 000 hectares of winter maize from which 400 000 tons could be expected by August or September.
4 July, 2002: While the winter programme seems to be going well, maize production was only taking place in Chiredzi where nearly 600 000 tons of maize were expected.
6 July, 2002: 60 000 tonnes of maize are expected.
Around the corner
Each of the following initiatives had yet to be launched at the time of publication despite ministerial deadlines that had come and gone.
Agricultural Marketing Authority
18 May 2003: “The formation of AMA is around the corner and should put to rest issues concerning pricing of agricultural produce,” said Dr Made.
10 October, 2003: “We are putting the final touches and AMA should be operational in the coming few months as soon as we approve the board,” said Dr Made.
Horticultural Authority
2 April, 2004: The Horticultural Authority, a parastatal set up to represent the interests of indigenous horticultural farmers, is expected to be operational within the next three months, the minister of agriculture and rural development, Dr Joseph Made, said yesterday.
25 year strategy
23 January, 2004: “We expect to come up with a 25 year strategy for production that should be out in the next few months,” said Dr Made.
Warnings to officials
Perhaps the delays in implementation explain why the minister is often quoted for castigating his officials.
23 April, 2004: “I will be there to monitor (the) performance of personnel in my ministry, for being a non-performer is as good as sabotage.”
4 May, 2004: He said he had summoned officials from the parastatal to his office to read the riot act to them. “If that continues, their days are numbered,” he said.
21 May, 2004: “I will not brook any nonsense on this matter. It will be investigated and all those involved will answer for the crime.”
Appraisal
Unfortunately, Made is not likely to answer for his almost criminal incompetence. As his statements and those of the Zanu PF officials quoted above make clear, Made has dismally failed for three consecutive years to ensure the timely distribution of sufficient seed and fertiliser to the newly resettled farmers.
This despite the fact that the existing number of newly resettled farmers is far smaller than repeatedly touted by him. For years Made said there were 300 000 smallholder farmers and 56 000 large-scale farmers. The presidential land resettlement committee report, however, cites figures of 112 000 and 12 500 respectively.
Aside from his repeated inability to source seeds and fertiliser, Made has likewise failed to secure a sufficient number of tractors and harvesters. He has come up largely empty-handed despite very high-profile attempts to buy equipment domestically from white commercial farmers or abroad from Iran and Malaysia. When the small quantity of equipment he manages to beg and borrow does belatedly arrive he has no choice but to describe it as a “pittance.”
Made has previously boasted of bumper harvests of winter wheat and winter maize that never materialised. He initially claimed government would import the fantastically large amount of 1,5 million tons. Not content with that impressive figure he revised it upward a week later to the stratospheric amount of 2,5 million tons. Perhaps someone suggested this was not feasible so he then dropped the amount ordered back down to 1,5 million tons.
It must be conceded that land reform was desperately needed in Zimbabwe, though certainly not in the violent, haphazard and kleptocratic manner that it was implemented.
Unlike most people outside of Zanu-PF, I am convinced government has the financial wherewithal to import sufficient food this year. Outsiders have consistently underestimated the government’s capacity to purchase food as well as its ability to collect favours from unexpected corporations and countries. Zimbabwe Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono and the entire Zimbabwean banking sector have proved adept at raising funds and sourcing foreign currency by any means necessary.
The most serious problem in Zimbabwe is not the mythical bumper harvest. The most worrisome issue is that the import and distribution is mostly in the hands of the egregiously incompetent Made. He has the reverse Midas touch; everything he touches turns to dross.