Voter choices: Leaders and laggers

Though it seems that single-party dominance is becoming ever more entrenched, popular support for party leaders isn’t necessarily following suit. It happened before, when the National Party had to survive the poor image of PW Botha. Is this old pattern recurring? National surveys up to the end of 2002 indicate that the ANC remains supreme while the DA and the NNP have both suffered some erosion of support. The ANC’s greatest ally is the loss of interest engendered by its overwhelming majority; the opposition parties have lost momentum. However, MarkData findings show that many of the 30 per cent of adults who are uncommitted want effective opposition. They can be re-mobilised. Poll respondents were also asked to name the two politicians they would most like to vote for. Mandela, chosen by 37 per cent, is still clearly the symbolic leader of the nation. Mangosuthu Buthelezi, Bantu Holomisa and Tony Leon are more popular than the parties they lead; Thabo Mbeki’s popularity is ten percentage points below that of the ANC and Marthinus van Schalkwyk is only half as popular as his party. Mbeki is chosen by only 41 per cent of his own party’s supporters. Buthelezi and Holomisa are the overwhelming choices of their own parties’ supporters (at 86 per cent and 79 per cent respectively) and Tony Leon is a slightly less dominant choice of DA supporters (56 per cent). Mbeki has a significant following among UDM and PAC supporters (28 per cent and 21 per cent) but his popularity is surprisingly low (considering that he is head of state) among supporters of other parties, including the ANC’s coalition partners, the NNP and the AFP. Tony Leon is chosen by 18 per cent of NNP supporters and 32 per cent of right-wing party supporters, but has hardly any following in the IFP or UDM. Given that choices made for Mandela and Mbeki accounted for only 63 per cent of a potential 200 per cent in double choices, there was lots of scope for cabinet ministers and provincial premiers to do well. However, the results are crushing evidence of their mediocrity in the voters’ eyes. All of them together attract less than 15 per cent, with Ngoako Ramathlodi (premier of Limpopo) and Trevor Manuel topping the list at 2 per cent and 1,7 per cent respectively. The rest badly need PR consultants! Leon, Holomisa and Buthelezi all outstrip their parties in popularity at present, and their combined popularity (just over 22 per cent) easily exceeds that of all ministers and premiers combined. Together, they could offer hope for a democracy that is unlikely to survive the permanent super-dominance of one party.

Single party dominance in South African politics seems to be becoming ever more entrenched, although more as a result of voter apathy, uncertainty and malaise in opposition than any increase in the popularity of the African National Congress (ANC). Party leader popularity is more interesting, however. The popular support for leading politicians does not necessarily coincide with the size and strength of parties. It has happened before in South Africa that a dominant party — the hegemonic National Party in the old order — had to survive the poor image of a leader, PW Botha. Is this pattern reappearing today?

Focus, in co-operation with MarkData, tracks party support on a regular basis. The trends since the last general election in 1999, after a surge of popularity when the Democratic Party (DP) and the New National Party (NNP) entered into their ill-fated alliance, seem to have settled into a very slow shuffle across the political landscape, without particular direction. The trends emerging from representative and strictly comparable national surveys up to November/December 2002 are given in Table One.

These trends are based on carefully stratified samples of the same size (around 2250) and identical design that have yielded results of great consistency over time. Clearly the ANC, after weakening slightly after the last general elections, remains on its dominant plateau, impervious to the struggle for position among the other parties. After the split with the NNP in 1991, the official opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) retained its 1999 strength and then grew up to mid-2002, but now seems to be suffering some erosion of support, mainly in the Cape provinces.

The NNP, now in coalition with the ANC, is doing no better. After recovering a good deal of the support it ceded to the DA in their alliance, it is now in danger of ceding support to its new coalition partner. The ANC offered the NNP a life jacket, but is not helping it to swim.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), after a brief burst of increased support in early 2001, when loyal Zulu voters thought that the IFP, their King and the ANC had all made peace, lost the support of some timid voters as tensions between it and the ANC rose. Now that the tensions are becoming even more serious, a mobilisation of sentiment may have occurred and its support might be picking up slightly.

The movements in party support are far from dramatic, however. In this political supermarket some customers at year end were beginning to look at the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) with renewed interest, although destructive jostling for positions in the latter has probably lost the PAC that increased support by now.

Hidden among the “other” parties, the Freedom Front and other so-called right wing parties are together now as small as the United Christian Democratic Party of former homeland President Lucas Mangope. Only Azapo, despite having a deputy minister to its credit, and Amichand Rajbansi’s Minority Front are smaller than the former white right. Where have all the tough guys gone, and where are the supporters that the DA has lost? Most of them have withdrawn into the political wilderness of uncertainty. With only half the support of all voters in the country the ANC is supreme and currently beyond reach. Its strongest ally is the politics of disinterest and despair, which this immovable dominance feeds all the time. Opposition has lost momentum.

This need not be permanent. Earlier MarkData findings have shown that among the nearly 30 per cent of adults who make no choices, a substantial proportion want effective opposition. They can be re-mobilised.

All our party-political ponds may be more or less stagnant, but life among the frogs — the party leaders — is rather more interesting.

We asked the respondents in the November/December 2002 survey to name the two individual politicians that impress them most of all and that they would most like to vote for. The results show that the biggest is outside a pond, and that some of the tadpoles have muscle.

The results of the choice of the two most popular politicians combined (with percentages therefore exceeding 100 per cent) are given in Table Two.

Mandela is still very clearly the symbolic leader of the nation, a status facilitated by the fact that his association with the governing party is unblemished by the difficulties of active government. What is also striking here is that while Mangosuthu Buthelezi, Bantu Holomisa and Tony Leon are more popular than the parties they lead, Holomisa in particular, Thabo Mbeki and Marthinus van Schalkwyk come out below the popularity of their parties. Mbeki’s popularity, as measured by this question, is nearly 10 percentage points below the level of support of the ANC. Van Schalkwyk’s level is less than half of his party’s support.

As one would expect, the patterns change among supporters of the different parties. In Table Three the top choices are given within each group of party supporters, and we note that new names appear in addition to the top ten among the electorate as a whole. The table omits politicians mentioned by very small numbers of respondents.

Some patterns stand out. As already anticipated, Mbeki is mentioned by only four out of ten of his own party’s supporters. The first impression is that his support is robbed by Mandela, but the voters had two choices, and up to 100 per cent of ANC supporters could have named Mbeki as their second choice, but they didn’t. Do we have a case here of a frog that is bigger in the ponds of Africa, the Non-Aligned Movement and the world at large than back home — the same problem as that of the internationally lionised Jan Smuts in his time?

Buthelezi and Holomisa are super-dominant in their own parties. Tony Leon is not quite as dominant but of uncontested popularity in his party nonetheless. Pieter Mulder, in the so-called right wing pool, ranks at the level of Mbeki while Van Schalkwyk and Mogoba in the NNP and PAC respectively are the figurative tadpoles. Leaders of other parties and some of their own party colleagues displace as much or more stagnant water than they do.

As in any political system, popularity is cordoned off by party-political loyalty to a significant extent. There are some politicians with significant cross-party support, however.

Mbeki has a significant following among supporters of the UDM and the PAC, but as head of state his popularity among supporters of other parties is surprisingly low. He is in coalition, however vexed, with the NNP and the IFP, but only 7 per cent of those supporters mention him as one of their two choices. This says a great deal for the dubious quality of these associations between parties.

Holomisa and Buthelezi are both fairly popular among the supporters of the PAC, but hardly feature among supporters of other parties. Leon has significant support among NNP followers and in the right wing but no support or hardly any following among the IFP or the UDM supporters. The moves towards co-operation between the DA and the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal, on these grounds, are certainly not supported by any significant mutual respect for leaders among the supporters. Is another marriage of convenience on the cards? Marthinus van Schalkwyk also picks up scant support among the supporters of his ANC coalition partner, and as already said, Mbeki does no better among NNP supporters.

Mandela remains the champion of cross-party support, but his icon status is obviously protected by the fact that he is no longer a full-time politician. Tony Leon does rather better than anyone else across party boundaries if one allows for the fact that he has no prominent national office.

Given that choices made for Mandela and Mbeki absorbed only some 63 per cent of a potential 200 per cent in double choices, there was plenty of scope for cabinet ministers and provincial premiers to do very well. They get automatic publicity by virtue of their offices and many of them are very swanky people indeed. The results, however, are crushing evidence of their relative mediocrity in the eyes of voters. The full results for all the ministers and premiers mentioned by the respondents are noted in Table Four.

All the ministers and premiers together thus attract significantly less popular support than the four top opposition leaders together (15 per cent versus 24 per cent), despite the massive publicity advantage that the office bearers have. The ministers do rather badly in comparison with the premiers who generally only get publicity in their regions. Relatively speaking, therefore, Ngoako Ramathlodi, the Premier of Limpopo, and Trevor Manuel, minister of finance, are shining stars. Ramathlodi shows just what enthusiasm, personality, idealism and an ability to communicate with the people can achieve. Manuel owes his relative prominence to popularity across parties. The rest, in terms of these results, badly need public relations consultants, or else they should begin to speak in languages, and in styles within languages, that the people understand.

The governing party, while clearly lacklustre, is secure on a plateau of support. Opposition is at a low ebb in terms of popular support at present. More potential voters seem to have lost interest in party politics than the numbers supporting all opposition parties combined. Some prominent leaders, however, are doing relatively better than others.

The president, deputy president and the leader of his most dutiful and secure coalition partner, the NNP, all lag behind the popularity of their parties, which speaks volumes. The same may be said for most cabinet ministers.

On the other hand three opposition party leaders, Leon, Holomisa and Buthelezi, outstrip their parties in popularity at present. Added together, their popularity comfortably exceeds that of all ministers and premiers combined. Together, but not necessarily in coalition, these opposition leaders may be the hope for a democracy too fragile to survive the permanent super-dominance of one party.